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2020-5-20
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5G能代替老司机开车吗?

文章作者:众车惠
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尽管目前5G仍然存在应用场景少、价格贵的问题,但绝不能低估未来5G的作用,尤其是5G在车的应用。 编者按:本文来自微信公众号“Dan......

尽管目前5G仍然存在应用场景少、价格贵的问题,但绝不能低估未来5G的作用,尤其是5G在车的应用。

编者按:本文来自微信公众号“DannyData小丹尼”(ID:dannyteam),作者:小丹尼,36氪经授权发布。

各位好我是挖坑狂魔小丹尼。

Hi, I’m Danny, the Digging Madness. 

尽管人人都在谈5G,但仍有很多人对5G的作用非常怀疑,因为除了看小姐姐宅舞和打王者荣耀不卡了,5G作用还体现在每月增长的流量套餐账单上。

Everyone talks about 5G everywhere, but many people are still very skeptical about the role of 5G. Besides the smoother experience of watching otaku dance and playing Arena of Valor, the impact of 5G can also be found in the monthly increased mobile data plan bill.

说实话目前5G的应用场景确实很有限,而且价格很贵,理想丰满的同时确实现实有骨感的一面,这就像你发现人人吹捧的大腕明星也会有“打脸永动机”的一面。

To be honest, the current application scenarios of 5G are quite limited, while the fee is quite high. The ideal is terrific and the reality is tough. It's like when you find a superstar that everyone touts sometimes keeps saying a thing and doing another.

尤其是对于老司机来说,他们对于5G时代在自动驾驶方面的应用就更加不屑一顾了: “老子几十年驾龄,你能飙过我秋名山车神、帝都二环十三郎、魔都炸街小王子?”

For those experienced drives, they are even more dismissive of the autopilot powered by 5G: "I've been driving for decades, how the autopilot can beat me? Not even Dominic can keep up with my speed."

前两天我去了趟上海,发现上海荣威满地跑,最近还看到荣威搞了个R标5G电动车,我就跟你们一样对这玩意更加怀疑了:5G真的能代替老司机开车吗?

I visited Shanghai a couple of days ago and found Roewe all over the place. Recently Roewe has released a 5G electric car with a newly designed “R” logo. I'm just as skeptical as you are: Can 5G really replace experienced drivers?

我是小丹尼,谈车说科技,本集视频仍然遵循我的标准:随你反驳。

I’m Danny, I talk about tech and cars. As usual, all information used in my video is authentic and first-hand. You’re welcome to disagree with my arguments.

先说结论:尽管目前5G仍然存在开头我所说的应用场景少、价格贵的问题,但绝不能低估未来5G的作用,尤其是5G在车的应用。

Conclusion goes first. Although the problems like the limited application scenarios and high fees do exist, the role of 5G should not be underestimated, especially its application on EVs. 

能把握住机会的人才都是面向未来的,这就像我在DannyData上集奈飞老板Reed Hasting早在1997年就坚定认为流媒体视频是王道。

Chances are often seized by those who look forward, like Reed Hasting, the CEO of Netflix, that I introduced in my last episode about Netflix. He considered the future belongs to streaming media as early as 1997.

虽然老司机飙车确实不能被完全代替,但未来飙车很可能就像现在骑马一样,常规交通工具变为个人兴趣爱好,正如马斯克那句经典名言:

5G will hardly replace experienced drivers in racing cars, while the future racing might be like horse-riding nowadays. That is, regular transportation will become entertainment eventually. Just like one Elon Musk’s famous saying:

这个以后等我再讲特斯拉再详细聊吧,你们感兴趣吗?

I’ll talk more in my next Tesla episode. Anyone interested? 

这里我们要引入一个“丹尼5G模型”:

Here I’ll introduce you to the Danny 5G Model. 

分成两个维度,纵向维度是“应用”和“根本痛点”,横向维度是“存量需求替代品”和“增量需求”。 

It has two dimensions. The vertical dimension consists of "application" and "fundamental pain point", and the horizontal dimension consists of "stock demand substitute" and "incremental demand".

举个例子你就明白了,目前很多人觉得5G的功能很鸡肋,其实也非常可以理解,因为他们只是看到了左上角“存量需求替代品”的“应用”,比如语音控制车机“开窗”、“播放歌曲”和“导航”,

For example, many people now think that the function of 5G is like a white elephant. This is very understandable because they only see 5G functions as the "stock demand substitute" in the upper left corner of the model. Such as using voice control in a car to open the window, play songs and navigate. 

其实这些功能完全可以用手机替代,而且需求也不是那么迫切,深扒一步根本痛点其实是减少干扰。

In fact, these functions can be completely replaced by mobile phones, and the demand is not so urgent. If delve deeper, we’ll see that the fundamental pain point is to reduce interference.

其实大家更应该关注的是5G根本痛点有哪些增量需求,比如提高效率、减少意外和促进协同,在“丹尼5G模型”的右下角;更应该关注的是增量需求有哪些应用,在“丹尼5G模型”右上角,也就是我之后要讲的三点。

People should focus more on what kind of incremental demand that the fundamental pain point of 5G will bring. Like enhancing efficiency, preventing accidents and promoting collaboration, which lie in the bottom right corner of the Danny 5G model. Also, the application of those incremental demand requires more attention, and this can be found in the upper right corner. I’ll talk about these three aspects in detail in the following part.

01 提高效率

先说第一点,提高效率。

Firstly, enhancing efficiency.

很多人都会有“路怒症”,开车都能开急眼,根本原因就是因为他人的低效和不文明驾驶,比如嫌弃他人等红绿灯起步太慢、速度太慢跟前车不够紧、乱加塞插队等等,

Many people have “road rage”. The fundamental reason is the inefficiency and the uncivilized driving behavior of others. People get annoyed when others start slowly, drive slowly with a long following distance, overtake frequently, etc.

如果有数据统计,估计路怒骂街比打游戏骂猪队友的次数还要更多。解决路怒症纠纷的绝不能只靠警察叔叔,更要靠5G支撑的技术手段。

If there are statistics, it stands a good chance that the road rage behavior is more frequent than losing temper with teammates when playing games. To get rid of the road-rage incident, the police are not enough. We also need to rely on the technical means supported by 5G.

在5G之前,从1234G,主要是为了服务于“人与人”之间通信目的“多人运动”。而5G呢,却是为了服务“物与物”和“人与物”之间的通信需求而生。也就是说,有了5G, 人类第一次将“物联网”提升到和“人联网”相同的级别。

The predecessors of 5G,1-2-3-4G, were mainly used to connect people. And 5G is born to serve the needs of “things-to-things” and “human-to-things” interaction. In other words, with 5G, the IoT (Internet of Things) has the same significance as the Internet of People for the first time.

而车联网,一直被称为5G物联网的“第一场景”。

The Internet of Vehicles (IoV) has always been known as the “first scene” of the 5G IoT. 

因为车联网本身对通信网络有很高的要求,匹配了我在之前DannyData第9集华为时提到过的5G四大特点:高速度、泛在网、低功耗、低时延,车联网的严苛要求也是我们目前技术(包括LTE-V、NB-IoT、LoRa等)都无法完成的,

This IoV has strict requirements for cellular networks, which match the four key features of 5G as I mentioned in DannyData Episode 9 about Huawei: high speed, ubiquitous network, low power consumption, and low latency. Current technologies (including LTE-V, NB-IoT, LoRa, etc.) are not able to meet the strict criteria.

4G车联车通信现状

毕竟开车这件事涉及人命关天,家破人亡,只能依靠5G这个“老司机”了。

Since driving relates closely to life safety and there is a high traffic fatality rate, the ideal IoV can only be fully achieved with the help of 5G.

所以, 车联网存在的真正价值,不只是远程帮你监控调教车辆的各项参数,更不是给你自动调座椅、开空调啥的,这些都不是核心痛点。

Therefore, the existence of the Internet of Vehicles can bring much more value than monitoring the vehicle parameters remotely, let alone adjusting seats and the AC automatically. These are not even worth to be mentioned in this case.

车的本质仍是交通工具,需要解决的痛点就是交通问题。而交通的核心痛点只有两个:城市内堵车堵到没朋友,城际交通成本高、效率低。说白了就是平时上班堵成狗,回家过年爸妈急。解决这两个核心问题,才是5G时代车的增量需求。

The essence of the vehicles is still a means of transportation. It is always the traffic problem that needs to be resolved. There are only two core pain points when talking about traffic: traffic congestions in the city, and the high costs with the low efficiency of intercity transportation, which can be easily found in commute time and the long time traveling home before Chinese New Year. These two issues are the incremental demand for vehicles in the 5G era.

平时效率低,往往是因为意外太多,说白了就是“动不动就出幺蛾子”,尤其是对于极端环境来说,人为过失造成的意外会更多,比如雨雪天气、疲劳酒驾、不耐心的驾校师傅带出来的不靠谱的司机等等,都有可能发生意外。

The low efficiency is often caused by too many accidents. The risk of accidents caused by human mistakes will even increase under extreme circumstances, such as rain and snow, drowsy driving, drunk driving, and unreliable drivers taught by impatient instructors, etc. 

随着5G时代自动驾驶的介入,尽管现在自动驾驶看上去还是傻傻的呆萌,就是个铁憨憨,但机器的厉害之处就在于强大的学习迭代能力,自动驾驶的Alpha狗很可能会比绝大多数人想象的更快出现。

Although autopilot looks unfunctional currently, the power of the machine lies in the abilities of learning and iterating. With the intervention of 5G, the “AlphaGo” for autopilot is likely to appear earlier than people expect. 

02 提高舒适性

接着说第二点,提高舒适性。

Then to the second point, improving comfort.

很多人会把5G时代提高车舒适性简单理解为帮你自动开窗户、调座椅、自动挂P档等等,其实更重要的是要意识到:提高舒适性可是判断一项新技术能否进入普通大众市场非常重要的因素,而不是只成为极少数科技极客们把玩的小发明创造。

Many people simply consider the driving comfort in the 5G era as the automation of opening windows, adjusting seats, shifting gears, etc. In fact, it is more important to realize that comfort is a crucial factor when evaluating whether a new technology can enter the market rather than being a small cool invention played by few tech geeks.

就比如为什么Google早在2012年就推出了谷歌眼镜,而Facebook早在2014年就用20亿美元巨资收购了Oculus VR,但为什么仍然VR在普罗大众之间还没有普及开来呢?

For example, Google launched Google Glass as early as 2012, and Facebook acquired Oculus VR spending $2 billion in 2014, but why VR hasn’t been popular yet? 

很重要的原因就是舒适性太差,时延问题容易让人感到头晕目眩。

One important reason is the uncomfortableness. The high latency is easy to cause motion sickness.

只有保证了基本的舒适性,才有可能吸引到更多开发者和用户参与到新技术的开拓。

Only when basic comfort is guaranteed, it is possible to attract more developers and users to participate in the development of new technologies.

这就像微信先把基本的收发信息功能让用户用爽了,再去开发朋友圈、微信支付、小程序等附加功能,这个等我DannyData第12集讲腾讯时再详细聊吧,你们感兴趣吗?

 This is like the development of WeChat. First it lets users enjoy using the basic messaging functions, then developed additional services such as Moments, WeChat Pay, and WeChat Mini Programs, etc. I will discuss in detail when I talk about Tencent in the 12thepisode of DannyData. Are you interested? 

类似的,尽管现在各大车企都在强调自己百公里加速有多牛比,但其实,你百公里加速到底是3秒还是5秒,一般大众很难体会到这种细微差别,即使是能体会到差别的车主,绝大多数时间也都是在路上堵着呢。

Similarly, all major car companies are now showing off their excellency in 100-kilometer acceleration, but in fact, whether 100-kilometer acceleration takes 3 seconds or 5 seconds, it is difficult for people to experience this nuance. Even if some car owners could experience the difference, they probably are stuck on the road most of the time. 

所以5G时代解决车的舒适性,远比百公里加速是几秒更重要,你自己可能喜欢超车的快感,但你爸妈老婆孩子坐你的车时,你还敢享受超车快感?等着挨削吧。

Therefore, in the 5G era, solving the problem of comfort is far more critical than a few seconds improvement in100-kilometer acceleration.

You may like the thrill of overtaking other cars on the road, but do you dare to enjoy that when your parents, wife, and children are in your vehicle? You are dead meat.

而且,无论是车内屏幕做的再大,车内看电影、玩游戏、做运动再爽,如果不能平稳驾驶,车内“第三空间”只能是“第三瞬间”,这就像你坐着过山车的时候不可能会去想着看片的。

Moreover, no matter how big the screen in the car is and how cool you feel when you are watching movies, playing games, and doing sports in the vehicle, if you can’t drive smoothly, the “third space” in the car can only be the “third moment.” Just like it’s impossible to think about watching a movie while you are riding a roller coaster.

那么如何平稳驾驶呢?

So how to drive smoothly?

03 促进协同

正是我要讲的第三点,促进协同。

That is the third point I want to talk about, promoting collaboration.

我们都知道自动驾驶是很多互联网公司和车企要争夺的一块大蛋糕。但我们会看到,中美实现自动驾驶的路径,是非常不一样的。

We all know that lots of internet and car companies are competing for a place in the autopilot field. But we’ve also seen that the path to achieve the autopilot is very different for Chinese and US companies.

美国在自动驾驶上,没有过多强调5G、车路协同等概念。

Autopilot companies in the US don't pay too much attention to concepts such as 5G and vehicle-road coordination.

而以谷歌为代表的美国企业的技术路线,会更依赖于单车智能,也就是说用最牛比的算法和强大的传感器,让每一辆车变成老司机去感知世界,达到自动驾驶水平。

The technical route of Google, as a representation of US companies, relies more on single-car intelligence, which means that using the most advanced algorithms and powerful sensors—making every car to perceive the world as an experienced driver to and then achieve autopilot. 

值得一提的是,前几天SpaceX又发射了一波卫星,推进了卫星互联网进程,这个等我以后讲SpaceX再详细聊吧。

It is worth mentioning that SpaceX launched its seventh Starlink mission a few days ago, advancing the process of the Internet of Satellites. This will be discussed when I talk about SpaceX. 

那么问题来了,卫星这么好用,还要地基5G干嘛呢?确实,卫星解决了很多地面基站建设时存在的地理环境限制。

So, the question is, why do we need to build 5G infrastructure when we already have satellites available? Indeed, satellites have solved the geographical environment constraints exist in the construction of ground-based stations. 

然而,且不说成本,卫星信号可能会受到大气折射的影响,导致传输效果不佳。

However, even if we put the cost aside, the satellite signals may be affected by atmospheric refraction resulting in poor transmission. 

因此,5G仍然在当下的通信市场上具有更高的优先级,也是当下发展V2X技术不可替代的首选。

Therefore, 5G still has a higher priority in the current telecommunication market, and it is also the irreplaceable first choice for the ongoing development of V2X technology.

这里我要给大家丹尼百科一下V2X,Vehicle to everything。

Here I'll give a brief introduction to those of you who aren’t familiar with V2X, Vehicle to Everything. 

它指的是“车与外界信息的交换”,包括了车与车(V2V)、车与基础设施(V2I)、车与行人(V2P)、车与互联网(V2N)的信息交换。

It refers to the "exchange of information between cars and the outside world," including information exchanges like V2V (Vehicle to Vehicle), V2I (Vehicle to Infrastructure), V2P (Vehicle to Pedestrian), V2N (Vehicle to Network).

而中国公司的自动驾驶路径,则更依赖于5G、车路协同带来的基础设施优势。这也是中国“集中力量办大事”的优势。

On the other hand, the Chinese company's autopilot path relies more on infrastructure advantages brought by 5G and vehicle-road collaboration. That is also the advantage of China's "focusing on major affairs."

从各种高效的基建,到全球最早实现ETC的普及,再到我们这次控制疫情等等,都能看出中国的超强执行力。

From all kinds of efficient infrastructure construction to the earliest spread access to ETC around the world, then to the control of the epidemic, etc., we could see that China’s super execution ability.

5G的普及,不是一个企业能够完成的,它需要整个国家队发力。所以在这一方面,中国的自动驾驶、车联网、物联网都会因为5G的普及,走出一条和西方不一样的道路。

The spread of 5G is not something that can be accomplished by one company. It requires the effort of the entire “national team”. Therefore, with the spread of 5G, China's autopilot, IoV, and IoT will all walk out a road that is different from the West.

其实任何革命性的新技术,都会经历一个相似的走势,就是这个Gartner技术成熟曲线图:

In fact, any revolutionary new technology will experience a similar trend, which is demonstrated in the Gartner technology maturity curve:

各产业新技术发展趋势期望

新技术的发展和谈恋爱有点像,一个新技术刚开始,都容易被人神化,认为是最好、最棒、最颠覆性的,然后希望越大失望越大,直至你慢慢认清他的真面目,最终走向成熟。

New technology is somewhat like falling in love. At first, new technology is easy to be exaggerated and to be considered as the best and the most innovative one. Then, the greater the expectation grows, the more disappointment you feel. And gradually, you recognize its true color and eventually become mature.

在去年的调研中,Gartner把5G放到了这个曲线图的至高点,难怪之前会听到各种5G赞歌。之后又有越来越多人高喊“5G无用论”。

In last year's survey, Gartner puts 5G at the top of the graph. No wonder you've heard a lot of praise for 5G. After that, however, there is a growing complaint that 5G is useless.

其实吧,5G更像是一种赋能的手段。

Actually, 5G is more like a means of empowerment.

作为一项技术,它本身并不值得被大众过度吹捧。真正应该关注的,是它所赋予的能力。

As a technology, it doesn't deserve too much hype. What really should be paid attention is the power it brings. 

长线来看,它究竟能解决哪些交通上的痛点呢?成本下降?效率增高?安全提升? 

In the long term, which traffic problems can it solve? Cost reduction? Efficiency enhancement? Safety improvement? 

未来5G对车行业的作用不仅仅在于造一辆车的问题,更是一项系统工程,这包括道路规划、红绿灯等交通设施、甚至连交通法规都需要更新,而通过系统工程解决问题,这也是国家队成员最擅长的,比如上汽集团。

In the future, 5G will play a role not only in building a car but also in system engineering, including road planning, traffic facilities like traffic lights, and even the traffic regulations update. Solving problems through system engineering is what the “national team members” excel in, such as SAIC.

如果你想要在5G时代有所斩获,就必须做多年的技术积累,正如摩天大楼不是一天建成的,而我这种胖子也不是靠一天吃肥的。

To win something in the 5G era requires years of technology accumulation. Just as skyscrapers are not built in a day, and no one grows a couch potato like me overnight.

我在之前DannyData华为里就提到过:春江水暖鸭先知,而“5G冷暖to B先知”。

As I mentioned in the previous DannyData episode about Huawei: The ducks know first when the water gets warm in spring, and enterprises know first when 5G works well. 

最先感受到5G牛比之处的一定不是你家隔壁老王,而是大规模商业运营,比如无人驾驶的出租车,包括谷歌、特斯拉、Uber、滴滴都在重点布局的robotaxi无人驾驶车队。

The first one who knows the usefulness of 5G can’t be your neighborhood but the large-scale commercial operations such as unmanned taxi and the unmanned fleet, robotaxi. The later has a place in the key layout of Google, Tesla, Uber, and Didi.

而上汽集团被授予国内第一张智能网联汽车道路测试用牌照、和华为都是汽车5G互联技术联盟5GAA的成员。

SAIC has been authorized the first domestic road test license of the intelligent network-connected cars. Just like Huawei, it is also a member of the 5GAA(5G Automotive Association). 

还有最近发布的Marvel R 5G电动车包括了各种L3级别自动驾驶功能,虽然我绝对不敢断言上汽可以跑赢5G这场战争,但绝对是5G赛道上起跑飞快的参赛选手。

The recently released Marvel R 5G electric vehicle has a variety of L3 level autopilot functions. Although I dare not assert that SAIC can win in the 5G competition, it is a fast starter on the track.

说实话,曾经我也对国产车有过误解,但当我自己做了越来越多研究工作之后,我认为我们应该对国产车有更多的信心,国产手机已经证明了自己可以和世界顶级品牌掰手腕的能力,希望国产车在5G的大背景下,也能和世界顶级选手摔个跤。

To be honest, I misunderstood domestic cars in the past. But after more and more researches and analyses, I think we should have more confidence in domestic cars. Domestic mobile phones have proven their competitiveness in fierce competition with top brands worldwide. I hope that domestic cars can also battle with the global top players in the 5G era.

吹了这么久的5G, 其实5G不是万能的,未来的6G、7G也不是,但确是任何全球互联网相关产业的一剂催化剂。

Despite so much praise, I should admit that 5G is not a panacea, nor 6G or 7G in the future. But it is a catalyst for any global internet-related industry. 

显然,我们可以预判到5G对车联网与自动驾驶产业的推动作用。然而,正如何同学关于5G的那期视频里提到的,让我们真正期待的,5G真正能够带来的是一个不可预知的世界。

Obviously, we can predict the promotion effect of 5G on the IoV and the autopilot industry. However, as He Tongxue mentioned in his video about 5G, what we expect is that 5G can bring an unprecedented world. 

到底车联网能够发展到什么程度,到底会有什么新兴产业的催生,我们都无从知晓。我只知道,有了5G,我们大概不能再忽悠老板或老婆说:“刚才信号不好没听到你电话了。”

We don’t know how the IoV will develop and what emerging industries will be created. I only know that with 5G, we probably can no longer fool our boss or spouse by saying, “I didn’t answer your phone because the signal was bad.”

尽管大家都说无论是5G通信技术的全面商用,还是V2X的落地,真正实现起来离我们还有一段距离。但是我们要清楚记得Erik在《第二次机器革命》所写:

Many people may agree that we still have a long way to go before the full commercialization of 5G and the full realization of V2X. But just remember what Erik wrote in The Second Machine Age :

“一年是一年,那是200年前,一个月是一年,那是20年前,一天是一年,那就是现在。” 

“Two hundred years ago, a year is one year; twenty years ago, one month equals one year; and now, one day equals one year.”

现在,各大车企都正在带领我们逐步打开未来这扇大门。正如我很喜欢尼古拉斯·赵四,哦,不,尼葛洛庞帝《数字化生存》中的一句话:“预见未来最好的办法就是把它创造出来。”

Now, major car companies are leading us to open the door to the future step by step. Just as my favorite quote from Being Digital by Nicholas Negroponte: “The best way to predict the future is to create it."

所以,今天我讲了这么多5G的已知可能的应用场景,其实应该最让人兴奋的,是那些5G时代未知的应用场景, 这也像极了爱情,真正的精彩在于你和爱人未来可能发生的美好。

Well, today I talk a lot about the known and possible 5G application scenarios, and the most exciting part should be those unknown application scenarios in the 5G era. This is just like romantic love, where the real beauty lies in the future that your lover and you create together.

就像当年3G、4G时代刚出现时,大家只知道“吃着火锅唱着歌”,而现在是“点着美团外卖,放着哔哩哔哩”,正如日本著名建筑师安藤忠雄曾说:“要加倍使出全部的力量往前冲,不要回头。如此一来,你将可以看到原本看不到的世界。”

Just like at the initial stage of the 3G and 4G era, people can only singsongs while eating hot pots. But now we all order takeaways and watch Bilibili. As the famous Japanese architect, Tadao Ando, once shared: "Spare no effort to go forward, don’t look back. In this way, you will be able to see the world that you wouldn’t have seen."

而5G时代,尤其是对于Generation Z来说,请大胆放心的奔涌吧,后浪!

And the 5G era, especially to Generation Z, is like an ocean. So just sail into it!

最后,以我很欣赏的一句康奈尔大学口号作为结尾:“不要告诉我世界是怎样的,告诉我如何创造世界。”

I’ll use a slogan of Cornell University to end this episode: “Don’t tell me what the world is like, tell me how to create it.”

我是小丹尼,谈车说科技。Techs Never Die,回见。

I’m Danny. I talk about tech and cars. Techs Never Die, see you next time.


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